Understanding Interior Deportation Figures for 2026

Understanding Interior Deportation Figures for 2026

In 2026, projections suggest around 230,000 interior deportations. This number is significant, but it is important to understand how it compares to past years and what it truly represents. A recent analysis by the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) offers a closer look at these figures, separating different types of departures and highlighting data complexities.

How Interior Deportations Are Counted

The MPI analysis, published in October 2026, estimates that the administration was on track for approximately 660,000 deportations overall for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026. This total includes all deportations, not just those of individuals apprehended within the U.S. interior. The MPI report draws on data from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, and records from the Deportation Data Project. These sources cover deportation activities by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

A key distinction made in the analysis is between people intercepted at the border and those arrested within the U.S. interior. From January 20, 2025, through July 31, 2026, about 980,000 deportations were recorded. Of these, 69% involved individuals initially intercepted at the border. Interior-origin arrests, meaning those that began within U.S. communities, accounted for 39% of deportations in July 2026. This is an increase from 28% in 2025.

Comparing 2026 Projections to Past Years

The MPI’s projected 230,000 interior deportations for 2026 are below the figures reported for 2008 and 2009. In 2008, interior removals were around 235,000, and in 2009, they were about 238,000. While the monthly average of interior-origin deportations has increased significantly, more than doubling from 8,000 per month in the first three months of the period to 19,000 per month from May through July 2026, the projected annual total for 2026 does not represent an all-time high for interior removals.

Understanding Different Deportation Measures

The way deportations are counted can significantly affect the final numbers. The MPI analysis includes grants of voluntary departure or voluntary return in its discussion of deportation totals, which is a different process than formal removals. These voluntary departures saw a substantial increase, described as about a tenfold rise compared to historical data.

A separate figure from ICE showed 356,389 removals between October 1 and July 11, with a projection of 458,000 for the entire year. This projected annual total would surpass the single-year record of 409,849 set in 2012. However, these different measures and definitions mean the figures cannot be directly substituted for one another.

The MPI analysis also noted that 20% of the 980,000 deportations involved individuals with a criminal conviction. The inclusion of voluntary returns and border interceptions, which made up the majority of deportations in the 18-month count, alters the overall figures. DHS has also reported figures of over 3 million people leaving the country, which MPI suggests might include legal immigrants and U.S. citizens, not just unauthorized immigrants.

Data Gaps Affect Tracking

A challenge in tracking deportation trends is the lack of detailed monthly federal data. DHS had not released comprehensive monthly enforcement reports from ICE and CBP since January 2025. Additionally, ICE’s removal dashboard had not been updated since that month, despite indications of quarterly updates. This absence of consistent, up-to-date information makes it harder for the public to monitor the pace of deportations over time. While MPI’s projections offer insight into trends, the specific figure for interior deportations in 2026 remains below earlier annual totals.

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