Netherlands Capital Gains Tax: A Shift Towards Actual Returns in Box 3

The Netherlands is preparing to change how it taxes private wealth. Currently, the system uses a “deemed return” for assets in Box 3, meaning taxes are calculated on an assumed profit rather than what was actually earned. However, a new plan aims to shift towards taxing actual gains, particularly when assets are sold. This change, announced in September 2026 as part of the 2027 budget, is intended to align Dutch tax laws more closely with those in other European countries. While the proposal is significant, it’s important to understand that it is still a proposal and not yet law.

The Current Box 3 System for 2026

For the tax year 2026, the Netherlands continues to use the existing Box 3 system. This system taxes presumed returns on savings and investments, not actual profits. Each individual has a tax-free allowance of €59,357. The assumed return rate for bank deposits is 1.28%, while investments and other assets are taxed at a presumed return of 6.00%. A tax rate of 36% is applied to these deemed returns above the allowance. This interim method means that taxpayers might pay tax on earnings they did not actually make, or pay less tax than their actual investment performance would suggest.

Asset or Rule	2026 Treatment
Box 3 Tax Rate	36% on deemed returns
Tax-Free Allowance	€59,357 per person
Bank Deposits	Assumed Return of 1.28%
Investments and Other Assets	Assumed Return of 6.00%

The government’s proposed future model suggests a more varied approach. For instance, real estate and shares in qualifying startups and scale-ups might be taxed using a capital gains approach, meaning tax is only due when the asset is sold and a profit is realized. Other assets could still be subject to annual changes in value. This split approach would mean the final tax rules would depend heavily on the specific types of assets a taxpayer owns.

Legislative Hurdles and Timetable Uncertainty

The path to implementing the new system has faced delays. The House of Representatives passed a bill related to taxing actual returns in Box 3 in February 2026. However, the Senate has postponed its vote, awaiting an amending bill. This delay has put the planned start date of January 1, 2028, at risk. The amending bill has not yet been submitted, and discussions about the broader shift to taxing real gains are ongoing.

This legislative uncertainty means that the announcements about a future system do not alter the tax calculations for 2026. The current, interim Box 3 rules remain in effect until new legislation is passed and takes effect. The process requires further parliamentary consideration and approval from the Senate before any changes can be enacted.

The timeline for reform is now less certain, with potential start dates ranging from the initially planned 2028 to possibly 2029 or later. This wider timeframe reflects the complexities in designing and agreeing upon the new system, rather than a settled transition plan. A simpler reform might start sooner, but a system that covers all Box 3 assets could take longer to legislate and administer effectively.

Financial Implications of the Reform

The delay or redesign of the Box 3 reform carries significant financial implications. Estimates suggest that shelving a planned Box 3 reform could cost the treasury around €2.5 billion annually. Another estimate indicates that a more complete capital gains model could lead to an interim revenue loss of €3 billion per year. Further analysis from the finance ministry has projected costs or delayed revenues ranging from €11 billion to €25 billion, depending on the final design of the system.

These figures represent different potential scenarios and do not establish a single, definitive cost for the final law. The State Secretary for Finance is reportedly overseeing further Box 3 reform, while the Finance Minister is leading broader discussions on the budget and wealth tax. Disagreements within the coalition government have contributed to the slowdown in legislative progress. Some political parties are pushing for a quicker introduction of a real capital gains tax from 2028, while others are focused on the budget impacts and potential revenue losses during the transition period.

The Supreme Court’s Influence on Tax Reform

The Netherlands has taxed private wealth through Box 3 for years, relying on a deemed return system. This approach came under scrutiny when the Supreme Court ruled that it was incompatible with European human rights principles. This ruling placed pressure on the government to replace the existing system. The current direction of the cabinet is to tax returns more closely as they arise, with certain assets being taxed only upon sale.

Finance Minister Heinen has framed this change as part of a larger economic strategy aimed at fostering a “coalition for growth” to ensure future prosperity and security. While the cabinet continues its work on a tax system for real capital gains, taxpayers must still operate under the 2026 framework. The upcoming legislative votes in Parliament and the Senate will be critical in determining whether the reform can proceed as planned or if it will be pushed further into 2029 or beyond.

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